For those who somehow didn't hear about this.
So, other than "Goddammit, Kim Jong Il," what are your thoughts? Likelihood of N. Korea following through on these threats? (Less than panic-inducing, more than I'd like, imo.) Likelihood of the US getting involved if s*** hits the fan? (Almost necessary, again imo.) Likelihood of China subsequently getting in on the action? (Not terribly likely, apparently.)|||Quote:
Alright guys, I know that we're all probably still a bit sleepy from turkey leftovers, but no one has posted a thread about this yet?
Day late and a dollar short, are you? We're already at 3 pages, and y'all piss & moan when I post stuff, so I didn't bother...
One interesting item is speculation that given how THE ONE is horrifically incompetent on the international stage and has the Wikileaks issue going against Clinton, this will be the "showdown" with which he tries to break Clinton's credibility as a candidate for 2012. Clinton has garnered support in her somewhat hard-line stance on the attack, so political infighting within the Administration might affect our position.
Another interesting item was that Wikileaks revealed China claims to be none too fond of Kimmy, nor have as much leverage over him as imagined. I find this somewhat less than credible, but it's possible <they> believe that. Nuclear arms for SK or Japan are pretty much a non-starter since they expect <America> to do all the fighting and dying, but China might sit bolt-upright if we suddenly decided to sell Japan F-22's after all. Better yet, sell the F-22's to Taiwan and sell a carrier to Japan. China might find that they have a lot more influence than they feel like using, once their hegemonic expectations run up against potential defenses of that caliber.|||Why I didn't make a thread about this yet, I don't know. I guess it just didn't occur to me for some oddest reason. But then again, I didn't make thread for Chinese ship ramming into Japanese ship either, so meh.
Being from East Asia and all, I was really interested in how China'd react over the mess. And so:
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Another interesting item was that Wikileaks revealed China claims to be none too fond of Kimmy, nor have as much leverage over him as imagined. I find this somewhat less than credible, but it's possible <they> believe that.
...I found this to be interesting. I too don't find it too credible either, but then that's an opinion coming from me who is idiot and a half when it comes to politics.
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Nuclear arms for SK or Japan are pretty much a non-starter since they expect <America> to do all the fighting and dying, but China might sit bolt-upright if we suddenly decided to sell Japan F-22's after all.
SK plox. They are the ones who are allowed to bear arms.
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Better yet, sell the F-22's to Taiwan and sell a carrier to Japan. China might find that they have a lot more influence than they feel like using, once their hegemonic expectations run up against potential defenses of that caliber.
Fill me in will you, since I'm not good at these things? Exactly what kinds of effect would China making any military moves have? I noticed you sounded like you wanted China to make moves soon, and I just wanted to know why.|||Quote:
Another interesting item was that Wikileaks revealed China claims to be none too fond of Kimmy, nor have as much leverage over him as imagined.
Why would they not have much leverage over him? That sounds very unlikely. It's China. Korea is but a fly to them in comparison. But maybe Kimmy has a lot of independence? I don't know, I thought he was always backed by China.
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"Our revolutionary forces will continue to mount merciless military strikes without hesitation if the puppets in the South trespass even 0.0001 millimeters into our waters," the North's military command said in a statement, according to Yonhap.
Puppets aye? Colorful statement. Could N-Korea be slightly less like a cliche Bond villain if they tried really hard?|||They are digging invasions tunnels. Kidnapping movie crews. So yeah, they could be less Bond-villainey, but they're not trying.|||I am surprised Kim doesn't post it as a status update to his "North Korea" Facebook page.
...
Seriously, Kim is such a ******. Hopefully he will stop firing at the South, but if he doesn't then "here" is to his eventual demise (if it progresses that far where the South just takes it over; with help).|||I don't see what the problem is. South Korea has plenty of marines. Just crank up the stims and micro to Pyongyang.
Spoiler
Or maybe...
/silly comment in srs thread, not to be taken srsly|||Quote:
Fill me in will you, since I'm not good at these things? Exactly what kinds of effect would China making any military moves have?
China has their own fetish about reunification, as in conquering Taiwan. Personally I can't figure out any rational cause for this fetish, but the mainland is bound & determined to prevent the Taiwanese from protecting themselves. Any time the U.S. takes real action to upgrade Taiwanese defenses, the Chinese squeal like stuck pigs and beat the war drums. So if we <did> want action on the part of the Chinese, that's a handy way to press the case.
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I noticed you sounded like you wanted China to make moves soon, and I just wanted to know why.
Not military moves, exactly, more like police actions. Most of Kim's contraband comes through China, and all it takes to squeeze the little rat-feck or his generals is to prevent his crates of scotch or other luxury items from crossing the border. The generals like their luxuries, and considering that this is all about making sure they're happy with Junior at the controls, now might be the time to help some of them consider alternatives. A Burmese Junta wouldn't be worse than Kimmy's magic kingdom.
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Why would they not have much leverage over him? That sounds very unlikely. It's China. Korea is but a fly to them in comparison.
See above; Kimmy's luxuries come overland, when he's not stealing the Chinese trains.
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But maybe Kimmy has a lot of independence? I don't know, I thought he was always backed by China.
He is, but he's also sufficiently irrational to annoy them. That's the difference between a totalitarian state led by a bureaucracy versus a totalitarian state led by a March hare. China's leadership is far more analytical then the Kremlin ever was, and apparently are increasingly less ideology-blinded.|||Quote:
See above; Kimmy's luxuries come overland, when he's not stealing the Chinese trains.
That's just sad. So their railworks are falling apart (along with their entire economy), and their solution is.... to just not give back the trains that brought them aid from China? I can see how things like these are slowly getting underneath China's skin, making them regret their decission to support him.|||Quote:
China has their own fetish about reunification, as in conquering Taiwan. Personally I can't figure out any rational cause for this fetish, but the mainland is bound & determined to prevent the Taiwanese from protecting themselves. Any time the U.S. takes real action to upgrade Taiwanese defenses, the Chinese squeal like stuck pigs and beat the war drums. So if we <did> want action on the part of the Chinese, that's a handy way to press the case.
Not military moves, exactly, more like police actions. Most of Kim's contraband comes through China, and all it takes to squeeze the little rat-feck or his generals is to prevent his crates of scotch or other luxury items from crossing the border. The generals like their luxuries, and considering that this is all about making sure they're happy with Junior at the controls, now might be the time to help some of them consider alternatives. A Burmese Junta wouldn't be worse than Kimmy's magic kingdom.
Ah, gotcha. So basically, keep China occupied with its own problems and they won't be able to aid Kimmy?
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totalitarian state led by a March hare.
That's disturbingly accurate.
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